Political shocks and economic growth The case of Tunisia

Such extreme events as a revolution, a global pandemic, or terrorist attacks are political shocks that can significantly impact confidence and economic growth. Tunisia, for which tourism is crucial, has recently undergone a revolution in 2011, two terrorist attacks in 2015, and now the COVID-19 pandemic. The economic impact of these political events is much greater than that of the economic crisis of 2008. Using a post-Keynesian stock-flow consistent model, the aim of this paper is to reproduce the stylized facts since 2008. We first build a confidence index, then we try to provide forecasts of the economic impact of exogenous shocks.